|Are Equities Under-Reacting to the Weekend Warrior's $34 Billion Bailout of Greece?|
|Tuesday, 02 March 2010 11:01|
EU officials put together another "unofficial" bailout package for Greece. The fact that the initial pop Sunday night to 1110-1111 could not be sustained and the bull gap kept trying to close leads me to believe the initial trade in March is going to be difficult to sustain above the Feb high set on CC Tuesday Feb 23. Remember, CC Tuesday was a bearish input the trade has been trying to negate since Thursday.
This price behavior we have seen overnight is consistent with the correlation models that suggest the rally off Thursday's Feb 25 low is correlated is correlated to Thursday Dec 31 low, Wednesday Dec 9 low, and Friday Jan 29 low. These models indicate a high in the first half of this week between 1116-1120. These models then turn bearish and should be followed by a cross-down below the Feb high at 1113 and YOC at 1111-1114 into the March 5 NFP report.
That the models turn bearish during the March NFP week is consistent with the fact that Wednesday March 3 Non-ISM is a neutral input, Thursday's jobless claims is a neutral to bearish input as is Friday March 5's NFP report.
The best pricing action on the upside should be on today's March 1 ISM report that should be friendly, and yikes, the initial price action is not that solid. Another indication the balance of the week may present downside risks to traders and investors.
Event-Driven Research for Risk Managers
Author of Riding the Storm Out
Registered Commodity Trading Advisor
Director of Financial and Equity Research
Structural Logic, Inc.
Georgia Anderson` Financial News Network, trader, trader education, online forex, daytrader,forex currency, forex software, investors, forex trading, forex.
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