As a 20 year trader I have picked up on patterns in the stock market and one such pattern which I fully subscribe to is that Fridays tend to reverse the dominant trend from the week.  With this holiday shortened week behind us and a 22 handle rally in the S&P 500 in just three trading days leads me to believe that today will produce a negative return for the index.

The basis for the theory is that I believe swing traders control the near term direction of stock prices.  Many in the swing trading community, including me, like to forecast a direction on Monday/Tuesday and exit those positions on Friday if stops have not been triggered.   So a week like the current week would say that long sided swing traders are still in there positions and will look to liquidate and take profits sometime around 10:30 am and start their weekend early.

Technically speaking the ES_H2 could use a nice pullback with a 70 RSI and 1315 looming as solid resistance.  As I write this, the index is on an early morning S3 pivot buy signal.  Identify the overhead resistance in your names and follow the direction of the big money.

To learn more about my methodology go to www.financialedgesolutions.com