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Why should AAPL be Sold Before Earnings!

Posted by Mark Moskowitz
Mark Moskowitz
Mark Moskowitz has been in the financial services industry since 1990 in various
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on Tuesday, 24 January 2012 in Intraday Technical Analysis

We all know and love the gadgets that AAPL, Inc. puts out on a regular basis.  Although I am a PC guy, who does not love the look and feel of the newest IPOD or the user friendly nature of carrying around a sleek IPAD!  These items are not just functional but beautiful and are a status symbol for the cool in all of us.  But you know what, as a technical analyst and trader none of that matters to me.  What matters to me is how the charts shape up and where is the heaviest resistance and support.

So when this tech, nay stock Giant reports this afternoon, usually around 4:30 pm ET I will be nowhere near my computer and trying to trade this thing.  I will let all of the fundamental bullies buy or sell AAPL a million times over and let the stock come to my most important technical levels.

I have a long history of trading this stock, in 2008 alone I traded over 16 million shares of AAPL, and it used to be wonderful to trade after earnings.  Nowadays as the price approached Google-esque numbers, the spreads are too wide, the swings to viscious and the reward:risk ratio just unknowable.

I do not know how many gadgets will be sold in the last quarter or what are the predictions for next quarter, but I do know the stock will be crazy volatile and for the average independent professional trader, just too much so.

The nearest term support lies at $409.50 and then $392-$397.  If those levels are penetrated then watch the 200 day SMA at $374.  Resistance is not much to speak of as the stock just recently pressed a new near term high three days ago at $431.37.  The RSI is at 65, down a bit from the 74 high and the MACD has crossed down through the signal line which for me is a negative signal.  AAPL has been trading from $420 to the recent high for the last 11 sessions, but only three of those 11 have been positive days.

When you add up the technical indicators on a short term basis, they point to a disappointing stock price after earnings.  My plan is to buy some puts to take advantage of the indicators.

To learn more about this analysis, go to www.financialedgesolutions.com

Mark Moskowitz has been in the financial services industry since 1990 in various capacities. He started his career as a financial adviser with UBS/PaineWebber in 1990 managing a business with over $150 million in assets. Mark also managed a hedge fund that focused on trading strategies for 3 years and is currently an independent trader earning his living as the ultimate capitalist, day trading stocks.
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