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THE NON FARM PAYROLLS CAME OUT WORSE THEN EXPECTED THIS AM. THE CONSENSUS WAS 170K THE ACTUAL WAS 115K. WE LOOK FOR A DEVIATION OF 35K ABOVE OR BELOW THE CONSENSUS. IN THIS CASE THE NUMBER CAME OUT MORE THEN 35K BELOW THE CONSENSUS AND WE THEN EXPECT HEAVY SELLING IN THIS MARKET. LOOK FOR CONTINUE SELLING NEXT WEEK WITH DOWNSIDE TARGETS AT 1340.75, 1315.25 AND 1296.00.

THE ES REMAINS STUCK INSIDE THE PERSISTENCE ZONE ON THE WEEKLY PROFILE TOP AT 1408.25 AND BOTTOM IS AT 1387.50. BULLS AND BEARS ARE FIGHTING FOR CONTROL OF THE MARKET ON THE WEEK AND IT SHOULD REMAIN EXTREMELY VOLATILE. A NEW MONTHLY PROFILE IS FORMING CURRENTLY UNTIL IT COMPLETES AND PLOTS THE NEW LEVELS WE HAVE TO FOCUS 0N THE CURRENT ZT PIVOT ON THE MONTHLY AT 1393.00 TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE METHOD TUNE INTO TODAY'S WEBINAR AT 1:30 PM PST OFFERED THROUGH TRADERS KINGDOM.
http://traderkingdom.com/

The emini sp is currently in a key price range with the bottom of the range falling at 1387.50 and the top of the range at 1408.25. This area is the persistence zone on the weekly profile within Derivative Concepts proprietary trading method called Zone-Trader Philosophy, and it represents where the fight is the greatest between the bulls and the bears. Today the ESM12 opened inside this zone suggesting there is no control bias and the bulls and the bears are currently fighting for control of the market on the week. This tells us traders to expect an increase in volatility and a whipsaw price action, which will lead to stops being run on both sides of the market. The Zone-Trader Pivot on the Monthly Profile is currently falling at 1393.00, since this is the point of control we can utilize this price level to determine trade direction. If the ESM12 is above 1393.00 and making new highs look for buys on the short term, if it is below 1393.00 and making new lows look for sells on the short term. This should help keep day traders on the right side of the market over the next few trading sessions. Also take note of the half and quarter lines that fall within this zone which is designated in orange as they will play a role in support resistance and direction as well.

Online Trading Tool:  Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Tuesday 03/27/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

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Online Trading Tool:  Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Tuesday 03/06/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

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Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Wednesday 02/01/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

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Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Tuesday 01/24/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

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We all know and love the gadgets that AAPL, Inc. puts out on a regular basis.  Although I am a PC guy, who does not love the look and feel of the newest IPOD or the user friendly nature of carrying around a sleek IPAD!  These items are not just functional but beautiful and are a status symbol for the cool in all of us.  But you know what, as a technical analyst and trader none of that matters to me.  What matters to me is how the charts shape up and where is the heaviest resistance and support.

So when this tech, nay stock Giant reports this afternoon, usually around 4:30 pm ET I will be nowhere near my computer and trying to trade this thing.  I will let all of the fundamental bullies buy or sell AAPL a million times over and let the stock come to my most important technical levels.

I have a long history of trading this stock, in 2008 alone I traded over 16 million shares of AAPL, and it used to be wonderful to trade after earnings.  Nowadays as the price approached Google-esque numbers, the spreads are too wide, the swings to viscious and the reward:risk ratio just unknowable.

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Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Monday 01/23/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

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As a 20 year trader I have picked up on patterns in the stock market and one such pattern which I fully subscribe to is that Fridays tend to reverse the dominant trend from the week.  With this holiday shortened week behind us and a 22 handle rally in the S&P 500 in just three trading days leads me to believe that today will produce a negative return for the index.

The basis for the theory is that I believe swing traders control the near term direction of stock prices.  Many in the swing trading community, including me, like to forecast a direction on Monday/Tuesday and exit those positions on Friday if stops have not been triggered.   So a week like the current week would say that long sided swing traders are still in there positions and will look to liquidate and take profits sometime around 10:30 am and start their weekend early.

Technically speaking the ES_H2 could use a nice pullback with a 70 RSI and 1315 looming as solid resistance.  As I write this, the index is on an early morning S3 pivot buy signal.  Identify the overhead resistance in your names and follow the direction of the big money.

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Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Monday 01/09/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

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Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Thursday 12/29/11 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

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The last week we were bearish E-Mini S&P500 futures, we indicated the 1,265 – 1,270 area as a potential profit target and our volatility-based projection proved extremely accurate once again. In particular, the market opened at 1,285 it dropped to 1,277 on Wednesday and, although it touched 1,287 on Thursday, futures prices plummeted and settled at 1,269 on Friday.

The volatility is currently at 1.4% (22.2% annualised) and the TGARCH plot is visibly displaying a curve which is unusually high but it seems that the mean reverting process of volatility is already on its way.

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E-Mini S&P500 futures have been clearly hit by the panic which swept away equity markets. In particular, the market opened at 1,330 rose to 1,344 it then plunged to 1,313 on Wednesday and it closed to 1,295 on Friday.

The current volatility is 1.18% (18.7% in annual terms) and the TGARCH curve is now displaying a robust upward sloping curve which highlights that the down move of the price action was constant and far from being over.

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E-Mini S&P500 futures moved higher probably pushed by the great depreciation of the US dollar against the euro, the pound starling and the Japanese yen. Specifically, the market opened at 1,314 remained stable around this area for a couple of days (1,313 and 1,316 have been the closing prices on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively) but the Index moved higher on Thursday with 1,326 points whilst 1,330 was the final closing price on Friday.

The actual volatility is 0.9% (14.2% in annual terms) and the TGARCH curve is now displaying a clear mean reversion movement which will tend to push the conditional variance towards its equilibrium point which is set around the 0.6% area (9.5% annualised).

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The sideways movement E-Mini S&P futures went through the last week was efficiently captured by the analysis we posted one week ago. Nonetheless, the lateral movement has been followed by a drop but the magnitude of the plunge has not been as consistent as we thought.

The market opened at 1,325 it rallied to 1,338 on Wednesday, it moved even higher on Thursday (1,341) but 1,328 has been the settlement price on Friday.

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The last week we were bullish E-Mini S&P500 futures but the huge crash     that commodity prices experienced affected most of the equity indices and     the American one is not an exception. The market opened at 1,342 it dropped   to 1,338 on Thursday it rallied back up again to 1,347 but 1,334 was the closing price on Friday.

The volatility is now fluctuating around 0.8% (12.6% annualised) and, although the TGARCH curve is showing a downward sloping curve, there is a high probability that the next trading days will experience a high degree of market fluctuations.

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The quantitative based forecast provided by the HyperVolatility team proved extremely useful and profitable once again!!! E-Mini S&P500 futures rose as expected and the last week profit target (1,340 - 1,345 points) has been largely surpassed. The American Index opened at 1,340 rose to 1,355 and then closed at 1,363 on Friday: a great trade!!!      

The volatility is fluctuating around the 0.41% level (6.5% annualised) and the TGARCH curve is displaying a stable scenario which is going to push futures prices even higher should things remain unaltered.

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The last week we forecasted a further drop of the VIX Index and we were right once again. The implied volatility index opened at 15.7% dropped to 15.3% and then closed at 14.7% on Friday.      

The current volatility is 5% (17.3% monthly) and the TGARCH curve seems suggesting an ulterior drop of the VIX Index which, should that be the case, would bring, the market in the 12.5% - 13% area.

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The American Index experienced a massive drop at the beginning of the last week: from 1,319 on Saturday the 15^th to 1,301 on Monday the 18^th!!! However, it has be pointed out that E-Mini S&P500 futures managed to recover at a very fast pace because after hitting 1,328 point on Wednesday the price rallied to 1,330 on Thursday.



The actual volatility is around 0.78% - 0.8% (12.3% - 12.6% in annual terms) and the TGARCH plot is now showing a dropping curve which is an evident signal that the down movement is over and that the Index is ready to head north once again.

Specifically, the conditional variance should remain almost unchanged over the next trading days, although some shy short term augments in the 0.82% area (13% annualised) are not to exclude.

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The last week we “predicted” a retracement of the American Index and our short positions proved very profitable. The E-Mini S&P500 futures opened at 1,320 dropped at 1,308 but on Friday they rose again and closed at 1,318.                   

We closed our short positions on Thursday because our profit target was around 1,322 and since futures prices sharply plummeted to 1,308 and remained in the 1,308- 1,309 area for 2 consecutive days we decided not to risk what already had earned because the market seemed not be willing to break through the 1,310 support.

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The E-Mini S&P500 futures went through a bearish week mostly influenced by the new bad news coming from Japan. In fact, the Index opened at 1,329 dropped at 1,328 and settled at 1,324 on Friday.    

The actual volatility is around 0.68% - 0.7% (10.7% - 11.1% annualised) but the TGARCH plot is really flat and in this case a short term explosion of the conditional variance could easily drag down futures prices.

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The last week our forecast suggested a further rise of E-Mini S&P500 futures towards the 1,330 area and the HyperVolatility team was right once again!!! Specifically, the market opened at 1.302 on Monday, rose to 1,323 on Wednesday and closed even higher at 1,327 the last Friday. A very successful trade!!!

The actual volatility is fluctuating around 0.78% (12.3% annualised) but the TGARCH curve is showing a fairly stable scenario which is likely to remain unaltered over the following trading days.

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The staff of HyperVolatility was right once again!!! The E-Mini S&P500 futures market was expected to rise and achieve the 1,290 - 1,300 points and effectively 1,310.7 was the closing price registered the last Friday.

The volatility curve is visibly downward sloping and the mean reverting process will probably push it even further dragging the curve from the actual figure 0.83% (13.1% annualised) towards the 0.65% area (10.3% in annual terms).

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The E-Mini S&P500 futures market fell as forecasted the last week and our analysis proved extremely accurate and profitable once again!!! Specifically, the American Index opened at 1,296, dropped to 1,253 and then closed at 1,274 on Friday.

The volatility is now1.5% (23.8% in annual terms) and evidently this is the highest value ever achieved by this market over the last 5 trading months.              Is this scenario sustainable? Is volatility going to rise even more in the upcoming trading days? We believe that the TGARCH curve is going to mean revert towards 1.2% (19% annualised) whilst the Index will increase in value and will probably achieve 1,290 - 1,300 by the next Friday.

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