GAFNN.com Blog

As a 20 year trader I have picked up on patterns in the stock market and one such pattern which I fully subscribe to is that Fridays tend to reverse the dominant trend from the week.  With this holiday shortened week behind us and a 22 handle rally in the S&P 500 in just three trading days leads me to believe that today will produce a negative return for the index.

The basis for the theory is that I believe swing traders control the near term direction of stock prices.  Many in the swing trading community, including me, like to forecast a direction on Monday/Tuesday and exit those positions on Friday if stops have not been triggered.   So a week like the current week would say that long sided swing traders are still in there positions and will look to liquidate and take profits sometime around 10:30 am and start their weekend early.

Technically speaking the ES_H2 could use a nice pullback with a 70 RSI and 1315 looming as solid resistance.  As I write this, the index is on an early morning S3 pivot buy signal.  Identify the overhead resistance in your names and follow the direction of the big money.

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The pair is back to trade inside the correctional channel shown in the image below, while Stochastic puts negative pressure on price

Trading stabilized above the resistance for the descending correctional channel shown below

Quick look at the AUD USD chart, we could see that the pair is breaching all the resistance levels facing it, specially after closing from the upside channel's support.

Please take a look at the chart (click on image for full size view)

 

We can see that the pair was successful in retesting a previously breached pivotal resistance level that turned into support at 0.7970

The euro succeeded in breaching the critical resistance mentioned yesterday near 1.4440 activating the bullish pattern shown below.

The Euro found good support at 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.4155 to rebound to the upside supported by the positivity on Stochastic which is starting to gradually decline, reaching overbought areas.

The Euro approached the first target awaited yesterday around 1.4455 and reversed to the downside after recording the high of 1.4440 affected by the negativity on Stochastic.

The Euro stabilized above 1.4325, the neckline for the bullish pattern shown below.

The Euro ended yesterday below 1.4325 areas, which keeps the suggested weekly scenario valid supported by the negativity on Stochastic.

The upside move stopped at the retest for the breached support at 1.4325 which the MA 50 protected.

EUR USD rushed to the upside after breaching the neckline for the minor bullish pattern at 1.4220, where this breach signals the possibility for retest the breached support at 1.4325.

The Euro rebounded from the effect of positivity on Stochastic, which was fully unloaded over four-hour basis.

The Euro clearly breached 38.2% Fibonacci correction and stabilized below it, signaling further downside movement over intraday basis.

The euro continued the strong downside move affected by the bearish technical pattern mentioned at 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 1.4155.

Despite the upside bias seen yesterday, still the daily closing was below 23.6% Fibonacci correction that resides with the MA 50 at 1.4455.

The Euro has been trading with an upside bias since yesterday, affected by the positivity on Stochastic that was mentioned before, while the pair approached the retest of 23.6% Fibonacci from below.

The Euro declined sharply on Friday affected by the bearish pattern mentioned, where the pair breached 23.6% Fibonacci correction extending the downside move.

The Euro is moving to the downside after stabilizing at 50 MA attaching the 23.6% Fibonacci correction now.

The strong downside move seen yesterday breached in the intraday ascending channel’s support and the critical areas of 1.4560.

The Euro reached the support for the ascending channel organizing the current wave as shown below, while Stochastic provided oversold signals.

The pair continues to trade within the minor ascending channel shown below, while Stochastic provided negative signals that might push the pair towards 1.4560 before resuming the intraday upside move for today targeting 1.4880.

The Euro rushed to the upside consolidating at 1.4600 after it stabilized above it, while the MA 50 continues to offer more support for the current upside wave.

By examining the daily chart, we can see that the index is still trading within the main upside channel that started from the bottom at 665.75.

The Euro reached the awaited areas at 1.4560 and rebounded to the upside in an attempt to stabilize above 1.4600.

The Euro has been trading within a tight range since morning with a slight downside bias aiming at 1.4560.

The Euro continues the upside move towards the main target awaited at 1.4875, the retest for the breached ascending channel’s support.

The Euro is now testing the pivotal resistance at 1.4455 and trying to stabilize above it.

The Euro consolidated between the resistance level at 1.4466, which push the pair to the downside yesterday, and the SMA 50 which keep the upside wave on intraday

The Euro consolidated on the 50 EMA which formed a support that  pushed the  pair to the upside, the pair is approaching toward the breached 23.6%  Fibonacci retracement level  which turned into resistance at 1.4455.

The EUR|USD consolidated on a retest  of the previoulsy breached minor resistance shown on chart below, where the 50 SMA is also supporting  the resistance level.

The pair was mixed yesterday and it was good to remain neutral, while Stochastic continued to provide positive sings over daily basis.

The Euro remains steady above 1.4150 with consecutive four-hour closing above it, while Stochastic continues to offer positive signals supporting the upside bias for the pair.

The Euro is trading at the mentioned retest areas of 1.4150 while the positivity on Stochastic continues to push the pair higher.

The Euro is trading with an upside bias since morning to retest 1.4150 areas.

The Euro maintained stability below 1.4150 with the second consecutive daily closing below it, which keeps the downside correction valid.

We can see that oil has taken a sideway wave after the huge drop recently, where crude oil prices dropped after touching the resistance of the main upside channel as shown clearly below in the chart.

The SMA 50 held the EUR USD pair from moving to the upside last week, pressuring the pair to the downside below the critical support at 1.4150.

The euro maintained its stability above the 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 1.4150 supported by Stochastic that is supporting the pair to the upside.

By examining the daily charts, we can see that the index is trading within two upside channels, where the main upside channel, which is controlling the index’s general trend since the trough at 665.75, and the minor upside channel, which is controlling the short term upside trend, as shown in the image below.

EUR USD continues to trade around the critical support at 1.4150 with stability above it due to the negativity on momentum indicators.

The EURUSD pair moved to the upside yesterday, where the daily closing was at the neckline mentioned for the bearish pattern at 1.4150.

EURUSD moved to the downside to break through the critical 1.4150 support, the neckline for the bearish pattern shown below which resides with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction.

EUR USD reversed to the upside to end yesterday above the critical support at 1.4170.

The Euro continues the negative pressure to breach the critical support at 1.4170 ignoring the clear positivity on momentum indicators.

EUR USD did not go along with the set conditions for the bullishness and breached the ascending channel’s support as shown above.

The Euro is trading below the sensitive resistance mentioned this morning at 1.4420 as it finds difficulty to break through those areas due to the negativity on Stochastic.

The weekly chart is showing us how natural gas is still trading within the main upside channel, which represents the upside correctional trend that started after touching the trough at 2.334

The Euro reached the support for the main ascending channel and reversed to the upside with hourly closing above 1.4340.

After the huge drop which took the index from levels at 4515 to the bottom at 1760, the index started an upside correctional wave within a main upside channel that represents the general bullish trend over the medium term

The Euro is still hovering around the support for the main ascending channel, with the fluctuations around buying areas for the channel as shown below.

EUR USD has been trading with an upside bias since morning and approaching 61.8% correction previous breached and now a resistance at 1.4455.

The Euro continues the negative pressure to stabilize below the support for the main ascending channel, which is a very negative signal confirming the downside correctional move.

The Dollar inclined sharply yesterday to cause big fall for all currencies' pairs and effect the whole market.

EUR USD is still trading below the breached support for the ascending channel since the start of the day and we are awaiting the consolidation at the first correction level of 1.4725.

By examining the daily charts, we can see that the index is still trading within a downside trend located inside the main downside channel as shown in the picture above.

The weekly chart is showing us how the pair is still trading within the main upside channel that controlled its direction from the bottom at 0.4885 back in March 2009, and according to the trading rules within channels.

The Euro remains stable above the support for the general upside trend where the pair returned to stabilize above it as shown above.

EUR USD is trading with an upside bias approaching the top recorded yesterday around 1.4880.

After the huge drop for the pair from the peak levels at 125.55 towards 68.40, the pair started an upside correction as shown below on the weekly chart

The tight range trading yesterday provided Stochastic with upside momentum as seen over four-hour basis after going towards 23.6% Fibonacci correction shown below.

By examining the daily chart, we can see that gold is still trading within the main upside channel, which started the general upside direction from the 681.20 level.

EUR USD rushed higher approaching 1.4900 with signs of a minor ascending channel organizing intraday trading.

EUR USD continued the upside move towards the 1.4700 at the time negative pressure is seen from momentum indicators.

The daily chart is showing us the regular trading of the index to the upside within major and minor upside channels, which are shown clearly in the chart below.

EUR USD is trading around the critical support mentioned yesterday at 1.4520 affected by the negative pressure from the bearish pattern shown above.

After dropping heavily from the top acquired at 13.752 to reach the bottom at 2.334, natural gas prices started an upside correctional wave within a clear upside channel as shown on the weekly chart above.

The Euro rushed to the upside approaching the awaited first target at 1.4500 which is pressuring the pair lowed supported by the negative momentum.

Gold price reached 1500.00 level bouncing down for a bit.

EUR USD is trading with an upside bias since morning and approaching the retest the breached support for the ascending channel that turned into resistance at 1.4300.

The pair breached the support for the ascending channel mentioned yesterday, and that is considered the beginning of the downside correction of the bullish wave shown below.

The Euru is trading with a downside bias with returning below the critical support mentioned in our previous reports –now resistance- that ascended towards 1.4470.

The Euro  is hovering around the critical support at 1.4455 with a downside bias affected by the negativity of Stochastic which might control the pair for some time.

Over daily basis, we can see how trading is structured within the main and minor ascending channels as shown below.

The Euro succeeded in stabilizing above the focal support yesterday that ascended now to 1.4455, after the SMA 50 prevented the pair from further bearishness.

Over daily basis, silver is trading within the main ascending channel the organized the wave from around 26.40 areas.

EUR USD continues to hover around the focal support areas of 1.4445 with a daily closing above this level yesterday.

EUR USD is trading with an upside bias since morning attempting to attached 1.4500 areas once again.

Updating our previous report on March 30, we can see how the index breached the 76.4% correction for the entire downside wave from 8180.5 to 3587.0.