GAFNN.com Blog

ISM non manufacturing came out today worse then expected. The ESM12 has now broken below the Zone-Trader pivot on the weekly profile at 1396.00. Look for sells in this price area with a target at the 1387.00 price area.

As a 20 year trader I have picked up on patterns in the stock market and one such pattern which I fully subscribe to is that Fridays tend to reverse the dominant trend from the week.  With this holiday shortened week behind us and a 22 handle rally in the S&P 500 in just three trading days leads me to believe that today will produce a negative return for the index.

The basis for the theory is that I believe swing traders control the near term direction of stock prices.  Many in the swing trading community, including me, like to forecast a direction on Monday/Tuesday and exit those positions on Friday if stops have not been triggered.   So a week like the current week would say that long sided swing traders are still in there positions and will look to liquidate and take profits sometime around 10:30 am and start their weekend early.

Technically speaking the ES_H2 could use a nice pullback with a 70 RSI and 1315 looming as solid resistance.  As I write this, the index is on an early morning S3 pivot buy signal.  Identify the overhead resistance in your names and follow the direction of the big money.

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The pair is back to trade inside the correctional channel shown in the image below, while Stochastic puts negative pressure on price

Trading stabilized above the resistance for the descending correctional channel shown below

Quick look at the AUD USD chart, we could see that the pair is breaching all the resistance levels facing it, specially after closing from the upside channel's support.

Please take a look at the chart (click on image for full size view)

 

We can see that the pair was successful in retesting a previously breached pivotal resistance level that turned into support at 0.7970

The euro succeeded in breaching the critical resistance mentioned yesterday near 1.4440 activating the bullish pattern shown below.

The Euro found good support at 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.4155 to rebound to the upside supported by the positivity on Stochastic which is starting to gradually decline, reaching overbought areas.

The Euro approached the first target awaited yesterday around 1.4455 and reversed to the downside after recording the high of 1.4440 affected by the negativity on Stochastic.

The Euro stabilized above 1.4325, the neckline for the bullish pattern shown below.

The Euro ended yesterday below 1.4325 areas, which keeps the suggested weekly scenario valid supported by the negativity on Stochastic.

The upside move stopped at the retest for the breached support at 1.4325 which the MA 50 protected.

EUR USD rushed to the upside after breaching the neckline for the minor bullish pattern at 1.4220, where this breach signals the possibility for retest the breached support at 1.4325.

The Euro rebounded from the effect of positivity on Stochastic, which was fully unloaded over four-hour basis.

The Euro clearly breached 38.2% Fibonacci correction and stabilized below it, signaling further downside movement over intraday basis.

The euro continued the strong downside move affected by the bearish technical pattern mentioned at 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 1.4155.

The Euro declined sharply breaching the critical support at 1.4325, which is a strong negative signal for the intraday trend.

Despite the upside bias seen yesterday, still the daily closing was below 23.6% Fibonacci correction that resides with the MA 50 at 1.4455.

The Euro has been trading with an upside bias since yesterday, affected by the positivity on Stochastic that was mentioned before, while the pair approached the retest of 23.6% Fibonacci from below.

The Euro declined sharply on Friday affected by the bearish pattern mentioned, where the pair breached 23.6% Fibonacci correction extending the downside move.

The Euro is moving to the downside after stabilizing at 50 MA attaching the 23.6% Fibonacci correction now.

The strong downside move seen yesterday breached in the intraday ascending channel’s support and the critical areas of 1.4560.

The Euro reached the support for the ascending channel organizing the current wave as shown below, while Stochastic provided oversold signals.

The pair continues to trade within the minor ascending channel shown below, while Stochastic provided negative signals that might push the pair towards 1.4560 before resuming the intraday upside move for today targeting 1.4880.

The Euro rushed to the upside consolidating at 1.4600 after it stabilized above it, while the MA 50 continues to offer more support for the current upside wave.

The Euro reached the awaited areas at 1.4560 and rebounded to the upside in an attempt to stabilize above 1.4600.

The Euro has been trading within a tight range since morning with a slight downside bias aiming at 1.4560.

The Euro continues the upside move towards the main target awaited at 1.4875, the retest for the breached ascending channel’s support.

The Euro is now testing the pivotal resistance at 1.4455 and trying to stabilize above it.

The Euro consolidated between the resistance level at 1.4466, which push the pair to the downside yesterday, and the SMA 50 which keep the upside wave on intraday

The Euro consolidated on the 50 EMA which formed a support that  pushed the  pair to the upside, the pair is approaching toward the breached 23.6%  Fibonacci retracement level  which turned into resistance at 1.4455.

The EUR|USD consolidated on a retest  of the previoulsy breached minor resistance shown on chart below, where the 50 SMA is also supporting  the resistance level.

The pair was mixed yesterday and it was good to remain neutral, while Stochastic continued to provide positive sings over daily basis.

The Euro remains steady above 1.4150 with consecutive four-hour closing above it, while Stochastic continues to offer positive signals supporting the upside bias for the pair.

The Euro is trading at the mentioned retest areas of 1.4150 while the positivity on Stochastic continues to push the pair higher.

The Euro is trading with an upside bias since morning to retest 1.4150 areas.

The Euro maintained stability below 1.4150 with the second consecutive daily closing below it, which keeps the downside correction valid.

The SMA 50 held the EUR USD pair from moving to the upside last week, pressuring the pair to the downside below the critical support at 1.4150.

The euro maintained its stability above the 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 1.4150 supported by Stochastic that is supporting the pair to the upside.

EUR USD continues to trade around the critical support at 1.4150 with stability above it due to the negativity on momentum indicators.

The EURUSD pair moved to the upside yesterday, where the daily closing was at the neckline mentioned for the bearish pattern at 1.4150.

EURUSD moved to the downside to break through the critical 1.4150 support, the neckline for the bearish pattern shown below which resides with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction.

EUR USD reversed to the upside to end yesterday above the critical support at 1.4170.

The pair is hitting the 80.60 level now attempting to settle below it 

The pair is trading around the support line of the main upside channel now at 1.6235

By watching Gold and Silver prices, we can see clearly the sharp decline achieved.

The pair is trading negatively approaching the critical support level of 1.4170

EUR USD did not go along with the set conditions for the bullishness and breached the ascending channel’s support as shown above.

The Euro is trading below the sensitive resistance mentioned this morning at 1.4420 as it finds difficulty to break through those areas due to the negativity on Stochastic.

The weekly chart is showing us how natural gas is still trading within the main upside channel, which represents the upside correctional trend that started after touching the trough at 2.334

The Euro reached the support for the main ascending channel and reversed to the upside with hourly closing above 1.4340.

After the huge drop which took the index from levels at 4515 to the bottom at 1760, the index started an upside correctional wave within a main upside channel that represents the general bullish trend over the medium term

EUR USD has been trading with an upside bias since morning and approaching 61.8% correction previous breached and now a resistance at 1.4455.

The Euro continues the negative pressure to stabilize below the support for the main ascending channel, which is a very negative signal confirming the downside correctional move.

The price is falling down sharply and seems like no support level can stop it right now.

From a technical point of view and after the severe drop for gold yesterday, where gold prices managed during the past period to reach near the resistance for the main upside channel that controlled its general trend from the 681.20 level.

The Dollar inclined sharply yesterday to cause big fall for all currencies' pairs and effect the whole market.

The pair is breaching the retest level of 80.75

The weekly chart is showing us how platinum is trading within the main upside channel, which represents the general bullish trend that started from levels at 745.00 to the current price level.

EUR USD is still trading below the breached support for the ascending channel since the start of the day and we are awaiting the consolidation at the first correction level of 1.4725.

The pair is attempting to settle above the resistance level of a recently created flag pattern.

The Euro remains stable above the support for the general upside trend where the pair returned to stabilize above it as shown above.

EUR USD is trading with an upside bias approaching the top recorded yesterday around 1.4880.

The tight range trading yesterday provided Stochastic with upside momentum as seen over four-hour basis after going towards 23.6% Fibonacci correction shown below.

EUR USD rushed higher approaching 1.4900 with signs of a minor ascending channel organizing intraday trading.

Over daily basis we can see how the downside correction started from the recorded top at 128.00 and found good support at the last 76.4% correction around 118.00.

EUR USD continued the upside move towards the 1.4700 at the time negative pressure is seen from momentum indicators.

The daily chart is showing us the regular trading of the index to the upside within major and minor upside channels, which are shown clearly in the chart below.

EUR USD is trading around the critical support mentioned yesterday at 1.4520 affected by the negative pressure from the bearish pattern shown above.

The dollar is falling against all currencies.

EUR USD is trading with an upside bias since morning and approaching the retest the breached support for the ascending channel that turned into resistance at 1.4300.

The pair breached the support for the ascending channel mentioned yesterday, and that is considered the beginning of the downside correction of the bullish wave shown below.

Crude Oil is trading within very tight range, this thing should be considered very well. why ? 

The Euru is trading with a downside bias with returning below the critical support mentioned in our previous reports –now resistance- that ascended towards 1.4470.

The Euro  is hovering around the critical support at 1.4455 with a downside bias affected by the negativity of Stochastic which might control the pair for some time.

Over daily basis, we can see how trading is structured within the main and minor ascending channels as shown below.

The Euro succeeded in stabilizing above the focal support yesterday that ascended now to 1.4455, after the SMA 50 prevented the pair from further bearishness.

EUR USD continues to hover around the focal support areas of 1.4445 with a daily closing above this level yesterday.

The euro succeeded in stabilizing above the critical support that rose to 1.4445, while Stochastic lost its upside momentum which might increase the fluctuation and volatility around the support.

Crude oil price is attacking the key support levels succeeding to breach them.