GAFNN.com Blog

THE NON FARM PAYROLLS CAME OUT WORSE THEN EXPECTED THIS AM. THE CONSENSUS WAS 170K THE ACTUAL WAS 115K. WE LOOK FOR A DEVIATION OF 35K ABOVE OR BELOW THE CONSENSUS. IN THIS CASE THE NUMBER CAME OUT MORE THEN 35K BELOW THE CONSENSUS AND WE THEN EXPECT HEAVY SELLING IN THIS MARKET. LOOK FOR CONTINUE SELLING NEXT WEEK WITH DOWNSIDE TARGETS AT 1340.75, 1315.25 AND 1296.00.

The emini sp is currently in a key price range with the bottom of the range falling at 1387.50 and the top of the range at 1408.25. This area is the persistence zone on the weekly profile within Derivative Concepts proprietary trading method called Zone-Trader Philosophy, and it represents where the fight is the greatest between the bulls and the bears. Today the ESM12 opened inside this zone suggesting there is no control bias and the bulls and the bears are currently fighting for control of the market on the week. This tells us traders to expect an increase in volatility and a whipsaw price action, which will lead to stops being run on both sides of the market. The Zone-Trader Pivot on the Monthly Profile is currently falling at 1393.00, since this is the point of control we can utilize this price level to determine trade direction. If the ESM12 is above 1393.00 and making new highs look for buys on the short term, if it is below 1393.00 and making new lows look for sells on the short term. This should help keep day traders on the right side of the market over the next few trading sessions. Also take note of the half and quarter lines that fall within this zone which is designated in orange as they will play a role in support resistance and direction as well.

Online Trading Tool:  Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Tuesday 03/27/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

...

Online Trading Tool:  Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Tuesday 03/06/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

...

Online Trading Tool:  Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Monday 02/13/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

...

Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Tuesday 02/07/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

...

Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Wednesday 02/01/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

...

Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Thursday 01/2612 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

...

16 days into the 2012 trading year and ES is trading very strange.  The broad equity index is up nearly 3% for the month but three days account for more than all of that gain.  In other words the other 13 days of the year have produced negative returns.

In addition to that on an intraday basis I have noticed a lot of intraday volatility but with no great trend and a number of signals being made throughout the day.  This is not my sweet spot as a trader since I like long trending moves and this seems to be too choppy for my liking.

Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Monday 01/09/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

...

Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Daily Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Wednesday 01/04/12 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

...

Online Trading Tool: Pit IQ (Pit Intelligence) - Online Trader Access to Trading Key Strategies, Setups & Levels live from the CME Trading Floor (Pits) in Chicago.

Friday 12/23/11 – Key Futures Trading Levels via CME Pit IQ

Equity Futures:

...

The pair is back to trade inside the correctional channel shown in the image below, while Stochastic puts negative pressure on price

The Euro found good support at 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.4155 to rebound to the upside supported by the positivity on Stochastic which is starting to gradually decline, reaching overbought areas.

The Euro approached the first target awaited yesterday around 1.4455 and reversed to the downside after recording the high of 1.4440 affected by the negativity on Stochastic.

The Euro stabilized above 1.4325, the neckline for the bullish pattern shown below.

The Euro ended yesterday below 1.4325 areas, which keeps the suggested weekly scenario valid supported by the negativity on Stochastic.

The upside move stopped at the retest for the breached support at 1.4325 which the MA 50 protected.

EUR USD rushed to the upside after breaching the neckline for the minor bullish pattern at 1.4220, where this breach signals the possibility for retest the breached support at 1.4325.

The Euro rebounded from the effect of positivity on Stochastic, which was fully unloaded over four-hour basis.

The Euro clearly breached 38.2% Fibonacci correction and stabilized below it, signaling further downside movement over intraday basis.

The euro continued the strong downside move affected by the bearish technical pattern mentioned at 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 1.4155.

The Euro declined sharply breaching the critical support at 1.4325, which is a strong negative signal for the intraday trend.

Despite the upside bias seen yesterday, still the daily closing was below 23.6% Fibonacci correction that resides with the MA 50 at 1.4455.

The Euro has been trading with an upside bias since yesterday, affected by the positivity on Stochastic that was mentioned before, while the pair approached the retest of 23.6% Fibonacci from below.

The Euro declined sharply on Friday affected by the bearish pattern mentioned, where the pair breached 23.6% Fibonacci correction extending the downside move.

The Euro is moving to the downside after stabilizing at 50 MA attaching the 23.6% Fibonacci correction now.

The strong downside move seen yesterday breached in the intraday ascending channel’s support and the critical areas of 1.4560.

The Euro reached the support for the ascending channel organizing the current wave as shown below, while Stochastic provided oversold signals.

The pair continues to trade within the minor ascending channel shown below, while Stochastic provided negative signals that might push the pair towards 1.4560 before resuming the intraday upside move for today targeting 1.4880.

The Euro rushed to the upside consolidating at 1.4600 after it stabilized above it, while the MA 50 continues to offer more support for the current upside wave.

By examining the daily chart, we can see that the index is still trading within the main upside channel that started from the bottom at 665.75.

The Euro reached the awaited areas at 1.4560 and rebounded to the upside in an attempt to stabilize above 1.4600.

The Euro has been trading within a tight range since morning with a slight downside bias aiming at 1.4560.

The Euro continues the upside move towards the main target awaited at 1.4875, the retest for the breached ascending channel’s support.

The Euro is now testing the pivotal resistance at 1.4455 and trying to stabilize above it.

The Euro consolidated between the resistance level at 1.4466, which push the pair to the downside yesterday, and the SMA 50 which keep the upside wave on intraday

The Euro consolidated on the 50 EMA which formed a support that  pushed the  pair to the upside, the pair is approaching toward the breached 23.6%  Fibonacci retracement level  which turned into resistance at 1.4455.

The EUR|USD consolidated on a retest  of the previoulsy breached minor resistance shown on chart below, where the 50 SMA is also supporting  the resistance level.

The Euro found strong resistance at 1.4280 which is the conjunction of the minor downside wave’s resistance and the MA 50.

The pair was mixed yesterday and it was good to remain neutral, while Stochastic continued to provide positive sings over daily basis.

The Euro remains steady above 1.4150 with consecutive four-hour closing above it, while Stochastic continues to offer positive signals supporting the upside bias for the pair.

The Euro is trading at the mentioned retest areas of 1.4150 while the positivity on Stochastic continues to push the pair higher.

The Euro is trading with an upside bias since morning to retest 1.4150 areas.

The Euro maintained stability below 1.4150 with the second consecutive daily closing below it, which keeps the downside correction valid.

The pair is attacking the 0.9770 level attempting to settle above it.

The SMA 50 held the EUR USD pair from moving to the upside last week, pressuring the pair to the downside below the critical support at 1.4150.

The euro maintained its stability above the 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 1.4150 supported by Stochastic that is supporting the pair to the upside.

By examining the daily charts, we can see that the index is trading within two upside channels, where the main upside channel, which is controlling the index’s general trend since the trough at 665.75, and the minor upside channel, which is controlling the short term upside trend, as shown in the image below.

EUR USD continues to trade around the critical support at 1.4150 with stability above it due to the negativity on momentum indicators.

The EURUSD pair moved to the upside yesterday, where the daily closing was at the neckline mentioned for the bearish pattern at 1.4150.

EURUSD moved to the downside to break through the critical 1.4150 support, the neckline for the bearish pattern shown below which resides with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction.

EUR USD reversed to the upside to end yesterday above the critical support at 1.4170.

The pair is trading around the support line of the main upside channel now at 1.6235

The Euro continues the negative pressure to breach the critical support at 1.4170 ignoring the clear positivity on momentum indicators.

EUR USD did not go along with the set conditions for the bullishness and breached the ascending channel’s support as shown above.

The Euro is trading below the sensitive resistance mentioned this morning at 1.4420 as it finds difficulty to break through those areas due to the negativity on Stochastic.

The weekly chart is showing us how natural gas is still trading within the main upside channel, which represents the upside correctional trend that started after touching the trough at 2.334

The Euro reached the support for the main ascending channel and reversed to the upside with hourly closing above 1.4340.

After the huge drop which took the index from levels at 4515 to the bottom at 1760, the index started an upside correctional wave within a main upside channel that represents the general bullish trend over the medium term

The pair bounced up after trading around the support level of the major upside channel.

The Euro is still hovering around the support for the main ascending channel, with the fluctuations around buying areas for the channel as shown below.

EUR USD has been trading with an upside bias since morning and approaching 61.8% correction previous breached and now a resistance at 1.4455.

The Euro continues the negative pressure to stabilize below the support for the main ascending channel, which is a very negative signal confirming the downside correctional move.

The price is falling down sharply and seems like no support level can stop it right now.

From a technical point of view and after the severe drop for gold yesterday, where gold prices managed during the past period to reach near the resistance for the main upside channel that controlled its general trend from the 681.20 level.

The Dollar inclined sharply yesterday to cause big fall for all currencies' pairs and effect the whole market.

The pair is breaching the retest level of 80.75

The weekly chart is showing us how platinum is trading within the main upside channel, which represents the general bullish trend that started from levels at 745.00 to the current price level.

By examining the daily charts, we can see that the index is still trading within a downside trend located inside the main downside channel as shown in the picture above.

The Euro is attempting to breach the support for the minor ascending channel shown above, which might push the pair to move to the downside in correction due to the negativity on Stochastic.

The pair is attempting to settle above the resistance level of a recently created flag pattern.

The weekly chart is showing us how the pair is still trading within the main upside channel that controlled its direction from the bottom at 0.4885 back in March 2009, and according to the trading rules within channels.

Market declined sharply while dollar soared in strong way after the announcement of the US special forces killed Osama Bin Laden.

The Euro remains stable above the support for the general upside trend where the pair returned to stabilize above it as shown above.

EUR USD is trading with an upside bias approaching the top recorded yesterday around 1.4880.

After the huge drop for the pair from the peak levels at 125.55 towards 68.40, the pair started an upside correction as shown below on the weekly chart

The tight range trading yesterday provided Stochastic with upside momentum as seen over four-hour basis after going towards 23.6% Fibonacci correction shown below.

By examining the daily chart, we can see that gold is still trading within the main upside channel, which started the general upside direction from the 681.20 level.